Grade 3
  1. Number Sense and Numeration  1.1. Understanding Numbers  1.1.1. Reading and Writing Numbers up to 10,000  1.1.2. Place Value up to Thousands  1.1.3. Comparing and Ordering Numbers  1.1.4. Rounding Numbers to the Nearest Ten and Hundred  1.1.5. Skip Counting by 2s, 5s, 10s, and 100s up to 1,000  1.2. Operations with Whole Numbers  1.2.1. Addition and Subtraction up to 1,000  1.2.2. Multiplication Facts (up to 10 x 10)  1.2.3. Division Facts (up to 100)  1.2.4. Multiplication as Repeated Addition  1.2.5. Division as Equal Sharing  1.2.6. Word Problems with Addition, Subtraction, Multiplication, and Division  1.3. Estimation  1.3.1. Estimating Sums and Differences  1.3.2. Estimating Products and Quotients  1.4. Understanding Even and Odd Numbers
  2. Fractions and Decimals  2.1. Understanding Fractions  2.1.1. Identifying and Representing Fractions  2.1.2. Fractions of a Whole and Part of a Set  2.1.3. Comparing and Ordering Fractions with Like Denominators  2.1.4. Equivalent Fractions  2.1.5. Simple Fraction Word Problems  2.2. Introduction to Decimals  2.2.1. Tenths and Hundredths as Decimals  2.2.2. Relationship between Fractions and Decimals
  3. Measurement  3.1. Length  3.1.1. Measuring in Centimeters and Meters  3.1.2. Comparing and Ordering Lengths  3.1.3. Estimating Lengths  3.1.4. Converting Between Centimeters and Meters  3.2. Mass  3.2.1. Measuring in Grams and Kilograms  3.2.2. Estimating and Comparing Mass  3.3. Capacity  3.3.1. Measuring in Milliliters and Liters  3.3.2. Estimating and Comparing Capacity  3.4. Time  3.4.1. Telling Time to the Nearest Minute  3.4.2. Calculating Elapsed Time  3.4.3. Using a Calendar  3.4.4. Understanding A.M. and P.M.  3.5. Area and Perimeter  3.5.1. Calculating Perimeter of Simple Shapes  3.5.2. Estimating and Measuring Area of Shapes  3.5.3. Finding Area by Counting Squares
  4. Geometry  4.1. Properties of Shapes  4.1.1. Identifying 2D Shapes (Triangles, Quadrilaterals, Circles, etc.)  4.1.2. Identifying 3D Shapes (Cubes, Spheres, Cylinders, etc.)  4.1.3. Describing Attributes of 2D and 3D Shapes  4.1.4. Recognizing Parallel and Perpendicular Lines  4.2. Symmetry and Transformations  4.2.1. Recognizing Lines of Symmetry  4.2.2. Identifying Flips, Slides, and Turns  4.3. Angles  4.3.1. Understanding Right Angles  4.3.2. Comparing Angles (Acute, Right, Obtuse)
  5. Data Management and Probability  5.1. Data Collection and Organization  5.1.1. Collecting Data using Surveys and Experiments  5.1.2. Organizing Data using Tally Charts and Tables  5.2.1. Creating and Interpreting Pictographs  5.2.2. Creating and Interpreting Bar Graphs  5.2.3. Reading Simple Line Graphs  5.3. Probability  5.3.1. Understanding Basic Probability Terms (Certain, Possible, Impossible)  5.3.2. Predicting Outcomes  5.3.3. Simple Probability Experiments
  6. Patterns and Algebra  6.1. Patterns  6.1.1. Identifying and Extending Numeric Patterns  6.1.2. Identifying and Extending Shape Patterns  6.1.3. Creating Patterns Using Rules  6.2. Introduction to Algebra  6.2.1. Understanding Variables as Unknowns  6.2.2. Solving Simple Addition and Subtraction Equations  6.2.3. Using Patterns to Solve Problems
  7. Problem-Solving Skills  7.1. Strategies for Problem-Solving  7.1.1. Using Pictures or Diagrams  7.1.2. Identifying Patterns in Problems  7.1.3. Making Organized Lists  7.1.4. Guessing and Checking  7.1.5. Using Logical Reasoning  7.1.6. Breaking Down Problems into Steps

Grade 3 → Data Management and Probability → Probability ↓


Predicting Outcomes


Imagine you are playing a game with your friends. You have a coin, and you are going to toss it. You want to predict whether it will land on heads or tails. This is where probability comes into play. Probability helps us understand the likelihood of different outcomes occurring. In this guide, we will explore predicting outcomes using probability in simple and fun ways.

What is probability?

Probability is about the likelihood or probability of something happening. For example, when a coin is tossed, there are two possible outcomes: heads or tails. Probability can help us understand which outcome is more likely to occur.

We can express probability as a number between 0 and 1. A probability of 0 means that something will not happen, and a probability of 1 means that it will definitely happen. Often, we express probabilities as fractions, decimals, or percentages.

Let’s look at some examples!

Probability of Heads = 1/2 Probability of Tails = 1/2

In this case, the probability of getting heads or tails is 1/2 or 50% (0.5 as a decimal). This is because there are two equal outcomes: heads and tails.

Visualization of probability

To better understand probability, it is good to use visuals. Let's consider a simple example with a bag of colored balls. Imagine you have a bag with 3 red balls, 2 blue balls and 1 yellow ball. If you pick a ball without looking, what is the probability of picking a red ball?

Now, let's calculate the probability:

Total number of balls = 3 red + 2 blue + 1 yellow = 6 Probability of picking a red ball = Number of red balls / Total number of balls = 3/6 = 1/2

The probability of choosing a red ball is 1/2 or 50%. This means that if you repeat the process many times, you will choose a red ball half of the time out of the total balls.

Predicting simple outcomes

Let's explore a simple scenario where we can predict the outcomes. Suppose we have a standard six-sided dice. Each side of the dice has a different number between 1 and 6 on it. If we roll the dice, what is the probability of getting a 4?

Each side of the die is equally likely to fall face up, and since only one side has a "4" on it, the probability is:

Probability of rolling a 4 = 1/6

This means that the probability of getting a 4 is one in six. This is a simple prediction of the outcome using probability.

Using probability to make predictions

Probability can help us make predictions in real life too. For example, we often hear weather forecasts predicting "30% chance of rain". What does this mean? It means that out of 10 days with similar conditions, it may rain 3 days.

Let's look at another example of predicting outcomes with a spinner. Imagine a spinner divided into four equal parts: red, green, blue and yellow. If you spin the spinner, what is the probability that it will fall on green?

Probability of landing on Green = Number of Green sections / Total sections = 1/4

The spinner has four equal parts, and only one of them is green, so the probability of landing on green is 1/4 or 25%.

Experiments with probability

To get a better feel for predicting outcomes, you can perform a simple experiment. Suppose you have a bag with 5 red marbles and 5 blue marbles. Without looking, you pick up a marble. What is the probability of picking a blue marble?

Total marbles = 5 red + 5 blue = 10 Probability of picking a blue marble = Number of blue marbles / Total marbles = 5/10 = 1/2

Each time you pick up a marble, you have an equal chance of choosing either red or blue, which is 1/2.

Next, let's do a quick experiment. If you pick up a marble 10 times and record your results, you might find that you picked up 6 blue marbles and 4 red marbles. This experiment helps you see how probability works in real-life situations.

Combination of possibilities

Sometimes, we need to predict combined outcomes. Let's say you have two dice, and you want to estimate the probability that the sum of the numbers is 7. There are many combinations that sum to 7.

  • Dice 1:1, Dice 2:6
  • Dice 1:2, Dice 2:5
  • Dice 1: 3, Dice 2: 4
  • Dice 1: 4, Dice 2: 3
  • Dice 1: 5, Dice 2: 2
  • Dice 1: 6, Dice 2: 1

There are a total of 36 possible outcomes when throwing two dice, since each die has six sides:

Total possible combinations = 6 * 6 = 36 Probability of sum being 7 = Number of favorable outcomes / Total combinations = 6/36 = 1/6

The probability of getting a sum of 7 is 1/6. Combined probabilities like this allow us to predict more complex outcomes.

Learning from predictions

Learning to predict outcomes using probability helps us not only in sports but also in everyday life. It helps us understand the possible outcomes and make decisions based on them. Although it cannot guarantee an outcome, probability gives us a good idea of what might happen.

For grade 3 students, mastering the basics of probability ensures they have a strong foundation to move on to more complex mathematical concepts. Practicing with coins, dice, spinners, and colored marbles makes learning probability fun and engaging!

Remember, the more you practice predicting outcomes, the better you will become at understanding the world through numbers.


Grade 3 → 5.3.2


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Understanding Basic Probability Terms (Certain, Possible, Impossible)
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Simple Probability Experiments

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Predicting Outcomes

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