Undergraduate → Probability and Statistics → Statistics ↓
Regression Analysis
Regression analysis is a powerful statistical method that allows you to examine the relationship between two or more variables of interest. While there are many types of regression analysis, at its core, it helps to understand how the specific value of the dependent variable (or "criterion variable") changes when any one of the independent variables is altered, while the other independent variables are held constant.
Understanding the basics
To begin regression analysis, it is essential to understand the types of variables involved:
- Dependent variable: This is the main factor you are trying to understand or predict. It is dependent on one or more independent variables.
- Independent variable(s): These are the variables that you suspect have an effect on your dependent variable.
Simple linear regression
Simple linear regression is a method that helps you understand the relationship between two continuous variables: one independent (X) and one dependent (Y). We reach this by fitting a linear equation to the observed data. The equation is as follows:
Y = a + bX + ε
Y
is the dependent variable we are trying to predict.X
is the independent variable that we are using to make a prediction.a
is the intercept of the line (the expected mean value of Y when X = 0).b
is the slope of the line (the change in Y for a one unit change in X).ε
is the error term (the difference between the actual and predicted Y values).
Interpretation of coefficients
In the equation Y = a + bX + ε
, the coefficients a
and b
provide important information about the relationship between X and Y:
- Intercept (a): It is the expected value of Y when the value of X is zero. It is the point where the regression line crosses the Y-axis.
- Slope (b): It tells us the default change in the dependent variable (Y) for every one-unit change in X. A positive slope indicates a direct relationship, while a negative slope indicates an inverse relationship.
Multiple regression analysis
Multiple regression involves more than one independent variable and helps to understand how multiple factors affect the dependent variable. The equation for multiple regression is:
Y = a + b1X1 + b2X2 + ... + bnXn + ε
Y
is the dependent variable.X1, X2, ..., Xn
are independent variables.a
is the intercept.b1, b2, ..., bn
are the coefficients corresponding to each independent variable.ε
is the error term.
Example
Suppose we want to predict the scores of students based on their study hours (X1) and sleep hours (X2). A possible regression equation could be:
Score = 10 + 5*(StudyHours) + 3*(SleepHours) + ε
Here, 5
is the coefficient that tells us that for every additional hour of study, the score can increase by 5 points, assuming sleep hours remain constant. Similarly, for every additional hour of sleep, the score can increase by 3 points, keeping study hours constant.
Assumptions of regression analysis
For regression analysis to be valid, several assumptions must be satisfied:
- Linearity: The relationship between the independent and dependent variables must be linear.
- Independence: The observations must be independent of each other.
- Homoskedasticity: The variance of the errors should be the same at all levels of the indented variable.
- Normal distribution of errors: The residuals should be approximately normally distributed.
Regression in behavior
In practice, regression analysis is used for forecasting and predictions in many areas. Here are some examples:
- Economics: Predicting consumer spending based on factors such as income, interest rates, and inflation.
- Medicine: Studying the effect of certain behaviors or exposures on health outcomes, such as heart disease.
- Marketing: Forecasting sales based on advertising expenditure, seasonal factors, etc.
- Real estate: Determining the value of a property based on characteristics such as square footage, number of rooms, and location.
Case study: home prices
Let us consider a case study of forecasting house prices based on various factors, such as:
- Size of the house (in sq ft)
- Number of bedrooms
- Place
- Age of the house
The potential regression equation can be structured as follows:
Price = a + b1*(Size) + b2*(Bedrooms) + b3*(Location) + b4*(Age) + ε
Each of these predictors has a corresponding coefficient that estimates its specific effect on the house price.
Conclusion
Regression analysis is a versatile tool that, when applied correctly, can uncover meaningful relationships between variables. By understanding these relationships, you can make informed decisions based on data rather than speculation. Whether forecasting future trends or analyzing existing patterns, regression provides a framework for understanding complex data.